Context – Energy  –      Renewable Energy

Contents

Summary

  1. Renewable Energy Characteristics 
  2. Renewab. les Consumption – historic and future 
  3. Net Zero by 2050?
  4. Sumary
  5. Recent Update Posts and News Links

(Note -All references used in the article are indicated and linked in the article. Direct quotations are indicated in italics – Emphasis highlighted in green.  A Glossary of Energy Terms used in this article is provided here. )

Summary

  • Renewable energy is energy from sources which is not depleted such as wind, solar and geothermal power and typically used for generation of electricity but can also be used for heating purposes.
  • Renewables have experienced phenomenal growth in recent years – with wind doubling and solar almost trebling in 5 years although from a comparatively low base.
  • In 2023, wind had 8%  and solar 5.5% shares of total electricity generation which was enough to significantly slow the continuing growth of fossil sources but not enough yet to diminish their shares.
  • Without further, renewables are expected to more than double by 2030
  • To achieve net zero by 2030, renewables would need to treble by 2030 and add a further 60% by 2035 by which time it should have over half (58%) of the total electricity market share.
  • Net Zero by 2050 is essential to keep the climate within what has been indicated as ‘safe’ heating limits of  between 1.5 to 2 degrees of warming.
  • China currently leads, by a long way, in terms of renewables deployment but other developing countries have received very little renewable investment which would be essential for the transition.
  • Opposition exists, especially in the US, as well as concerns about energy security (intermittent supply without combined installation of grid scale battery storage).
  • However costs have fallen and cheaper then even coal and on par with coal even with battery storage included.
  • Renewables deployment is possibly the brightest prospect as a key ingredient for a successful Net Zero transition nevertheless, the deployment pathway required is still very challenging.

1. Renewable Energy  – Uses, Energy, Climate and Environmental Characteristics:

Extract from: https://understand-energy.stanford.edu – Oil Fast Facts.pdf – Google Drive (with emphasis added):

Renewable Energy

Principle Energy Uses: Electricity, Heat
Forms of Energy: Kinetic, Thermal, Radiant, Chemical

The term “renewable” encompasses a wide diversity of energy resources with varying economics, technologies, end uses, scales, environmental impacts, availability, and depletability. For example, fully “renewable” resources are not depleted by human use, whereas “semi-renewable” resources must be properly managed to ensure long-term availability. The most renewable type of energy is energy efficiency, which reduces overall consumption while providing the same energy service. Most renewable energy resources have significantly lower environmental and climate impacts than their fossil fuel counterparts.

The data in these Fast Facts do not reflect two important renewable energy resources: traditional biomass, which is widespread but difficult to measure; and energy efficiency, a critical strategy for reducing energy consumption while maintaining the same energy services and quality of life. See the Biomass and Energy Efficiency pages to learn more.

Significance

Energy MixElectricity GenerationGlobal Renewable Energy UsesGlobal Consumption -Change (2017 to 2022)
14% of world 9% of US 30% of world
21% of US		Electricity 65% Heat 26%
Transportation 9%		Increase:
⬆ 33%

Energy Efficiency

Energy efficiency measures such as LED light bulbs reduce the need for energy in the first place

Renewable Resources –   Wind   Solar    Ocean

Semi-Renewable Resources –  Hydro,  Geothermal,   Biomass

Renewable Energy Has Vast Potential to Meet Global Energy Demand

Solar >1,000x global demand
Wind ~3x global demand

World

Share of Global Energy Demand Met by Renewable Resources –

Hydropower 7%, Wind 3%, Solar 2%, Biomass <2% 

Share of Global Electricity Generation Met by Renewable Resources –                    Hydropower 15%, Wind 7%, Solar 5%, Biomass & Geothermal <3%

Global Growth – (2017-2022)

Hydropower generation increase ⬆6%
Wind generation increase ⬆84%
Solar generation increase ⬆197%
Biofuels consumption increase ⬆23%

Largest Renewable Energy Producers

China 34%, ( US 10% of total world production)

Highest Penetration of Renewable Energy Norway 72% of the country’s primary energy is renewable

(China is at 16%,the US is at 11%)

Largest Renewable Electricity Producers – China 31%  of global renewable electricity, US 11%


Highest Penetration of Renewable Electricity–

100%   Albania, Bhutan, CAR, Lesotho, Nepal, & Iceland  

> 90%  Iceland, Ethiopia, Paraguay, DRC, Norway, Costa Rica, Uganda, Namibia, Eswatini, Zambia, Tajikistan, & Sierra Leone                        

China is at 31%,  the US is at 22%

United States snapshot: US Electricity Power –  Wind 10%, Hydropower 6%, Solar 3%, Biomass 1%  US renewable energy production  –  Texas 21%, California 11% .

*LCOE of US Resources, 2023: Renewable Resources
Resource (Renewables)Unsubsidized LCOE*LCOE with (ITC/PTC) Tax Subsidy
Wind (Onshore)$24 – $75$0 – $66 (PTC)
Solar PV (Utility Scale)$24 – $96$16 – $80 (ITC) $0 – $77 (PTC)
Solar + Storage (Utility Scale)$46 – $102$31 – $88 (ITC)
Geothermal$61 – $102$37 – $87
Wind (Offshore)$72 – $140$56 – $114 (PTC)
Solar PV (Rooftop Residential)$177 – $282$74 – $229 (ITC)
Wind + Storage (Onshore)$24 – $75$0 – $66 (PTC)
*LCOE – Levelised cost of Electricity (cost of electricity generation over generator lifetime) PTC – Production Tax Credit ($0.0275kWH,  ITC – Investment Tax Credit (30% of new site cost) LCOE of US Resources, 2023: Non-Renewable Resources.
(The ITC/PTC program does not provide subsidies for non-renewable resources. Fossil fuel and nuclear resources have significant subsidies from other policies.)
Comparator Resource (Non-Renewables)Unsubsidized LCOE*
Natural Gas (combined cycle)$39 – $101
Natural Gas Peaker Plants$115 – $221
Coal$68 – $166
Nuclear$141 – $221

*LCOE (levelized cost of energy) – allows for the comparison of different electricity generating technologies

Important Factors for Renewable Site Selection

  • Resource availability
  • Environmental constraints and sensitivities, including cultural and archeological sites
  • Transmission infrastructure
  • Power plant retirements
  • Transmission congestion and prices
  • Electricity markets
  • Load growth driven by population and industry
  • Policy support
  • Land rights and permitting

Drivers

  • Competitive and declining costs of wind, solar, and energy storage
  • Lower environmental and climate impacts (social costs) than fossil fuels
  • Expansion of competitive wholesale electricity markets
  • Governmental clean energy and climate targets and policies
  • Corporate clean energy targets and procurement of renewable energy
  • No fuel cost or fuel price volatility
  • Retirements of old and/or expensive coal and nuclear power plants
  • Most renewable resources are abundant, undepletable

Barriers

  • Permitting hurdles and NIMBY/BANANA* concerns
  • Competition from subsidized fossil fuels and a lack of price for their social cost (e.g., price on carbon)
  • Site-specific resources means greater need to transport energy/electricity to demand
  • High initial capital expenditure requirements required to access fuel cost/operating savings
  • Intermittent resources
  • Inconsistent governmental incentives and subsidies
  • Managing environmental impacts to the extent that they exist

*NIMBY – not in my backyard; BANANA – build absolutely nothing anywhere near anything

Climate Impact:   Low to High

  • Solar, wind, geothermal, and ocean have low climate impacts with near-zero emissions; hydro and biomass can have medium to high climate impact
  • Hydro: Some locations have greenhouse gas emissions due to decomposing flooded vegetation
  • Biomass: Some crops require significant energy inputs, land use change can release carbon dioxide and methane

Environmental Impact:   Low to High

  • Most renewable energy resources have low environmental impacts, particularly relative to fossil fuels; some, like biomass, can have more significant impacts
  • No air pollution with the exception of biomass from certain feedstocks
  • Can have land and habitat disruption for biomass production, solar, and hydro
  • Potential wildlife impacts from wind turbines (birds and bats)

Modest environmental impacts during manufacturing, transportation, and end of life Printable PDF, 289 KB        Sources           January 2024

__________________________________________________________________________________

2.Global Renewable Energy Consumption trends – historic and future

(all charts in this section from https://ourworldindata.org unless otherwise stated)

Historic –

  • As shown in the above graph, electricity demand has almost doubled from approximately 15, 200  Terra watt hours (TWh)  in 2000 to 29,400TWh in 2023. Over that period all the fossil fuels have grown in absolute terms broadly keeping pace with the increasing overall consumption but with coal plateauing in more recent years as gas grew steadily although also plateauing in more recent years.
  •  This fossil fuel plateauing may be accounted for by the steep rise of wind and solar since approximately 2015; much sharper rise than any other source. However this growth has been from a very low base but nevertheless sufficient to materially impact fossil fuel rates of development (albeit they continued to grow but at a slower rate).
  • Growth in Absolute terms –  This growth is best seen in the above renewables only graph.  Wind grew from 31TWh globally in 2000 to 2,300 TWh in 2023, a multiple of almost x1000. The growth of solar moved from 1TWh in the same year to 1,600TWh by 2023. While these growth rates are phenomenal, it is worthwhile to keep in perspective that coal grew to 10,000TWh and gas to 6,000TWh in the same period .
  •  Nevertheless, the renewables have moved into position in the past 20 years to begin to challenge the dominance of fossil fuels in power generation, which at the start of this climb would have appeared to be unthinkable. Indeed such was the growth over the period that the IEA constantly underestimated the growth rates.
  • The big questions are whether a) renewables in the sort term to 2030 can effectively stop the further expansion of fossils, b) in the longer term to 2050, effectively displace fossils from their dominance and c) relegate those to marginal power balancing functions on the grid, if at all. That is the major question at the heart of the transition to a Net Zero emissions world.

Future Renewable Energy demand –

Renewables 2024 –key extracts from IRENA Global Status Report:   Global Overview:

General Trends

  • In many countries, concerns about energy security have accelerated the transition to renewables and energy efficiency; however, some other countries have opted to embrace fossil fuels for energy supply assurance.13 Global investment in both fossil gas and coal infrastructure remains substantial.14 Many developing countries have prioritised short-term economic growth over long-term energy transition.15
  • Opposition to renewables has continued to challenge the sector’s development, despite advancements in technology and growing awareness of environmental concerns.16 Progress in renewable energy deployment, policy and investment worldwide remains unevenly distributed geographically, and this disparity highlights the enduring issue of energy inequality.17 With roughly half of the world’s population expected to face elections in 2024, the outcomes of these contests will be crucial to renewable energy developments, either enabling positive progress or putting a halt to some of the policy momentum.

Following key points are derived from the International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2024  (see also the analysis here for a review of the reports main findings) as well as direct quotes in italics.

  • Market Context – A key challenge for the continued growth of  renewable energy is the lower fossil fuel price world that the global market has moved into with potential glut of oil and LNG in particular driving prices down for these fuels and making them relatively more attractive compared to renewables. However there is also a large manufacturing capacity especially for solar PV and battery storage which means that these renewable technologies should be in a position to compete vigorously with fossils. Therefore as the report indicates, how the consumer and government responds will be the critical factor and will have huge consequences for the future of the energy sector and tackling climate change.  
  • Deployment predictions – ‘Clean energy is entering the energy system at an unprecedented rate, including more than 560 gigawatts (GW) of new renewables capacity added in 2023, but deployment is far from uniform across technologies and countries. Investment flows to clean energy projects are approaching USD 2 trillion each year, almost double the combined amount spent on new oil, gas and coal supply – and costs for most clean technologies are resuming a downward trend after rising in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. This helps renewable power generation capacity rise from 4 250 GW today to nearly 10 000 GW in 2030 in the STEPS [ie standard scenario], short of the tripling target set at COP28 but more than enough, in aggregate, to cover the growth in global electricity demand, and to push coal-fired generation into decline. Together with nuclear power, which is the subject of renewed interest in many countries, low emissions sources are set to generate more than half of the world’s electricity’ (p16)
  • Developing Economies – ‘China stands out: it accounted for 60% of the new renewable capacity added worldwide in 2023 – and China’s solar PV generation alone is on course to exceed, by the early 2030s, the total electricity demand of the United States today. There are open questions, in China and elsewhere, about how quickly and efficiently new renewable capacity can be integrated into power systems, and whether grid expansions and permitting times keep pace. Policy uncertainty and a high cost of capital are holding back clean energy projects in many developing economies. Recent clean energy trends in advanced economies present a mixed picture, with accelerations in some areas accompanied by slowdowns in others, including a large fall in heat pump sales in Europe in the first half of 2024. (p16)

3.Net Zero by 2050?

Following key points are derived from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Net Zero Roadmap – A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5C Goal in Reach, 2023 Update  (‘NZ50 Report’)

  • On a pathway to Net Zero emissions by 2050 which the NZ50 report  calculates is essential to to keep global heating within the 1.5 degree Celsius warming boundary;  renewable energy has key roles to play in reducing emissions: in transport (-16%)  and heavy industry such as cement (-6%) and steel (-6%).  However in all these sectors, their contribution comes in large part from electrification of their energy sources and systems (eg. EVs for transport) and in turn, the switch to low emissions sources of electricity is doubly critical. The switch to clean sources of electricity generation separately is calculated to contribute over one third of total emission reductions needed to achieve the key net zero GHG emissions by 2050.
  • How the IEA calculates that this switch to low emissions sources  may be achieved is presented in the fact sheet (p91) of the NZ50 Report and is presented in full here as the central spine from which much else depends:

The first thing to note is the outsized contribution to Net Zero in 2050 that the report envisages for Renewables – 34% of the total Emissions reduction envisaged– this  is the largest sectoral contribution by a wide margin (the next largest emissions reduction contribution is Transport at -16%)   

Just taking a few key points from the graph: under NZE50 scenario, solar and wind combined, grow almost 300% to 2030 and an additional 60% again to 2035. In percentage terms this represents a growth from 12% global share in 2022 to 40% share in 2030 and 58% in 2035 which are phenomenal growth rates in electricity market share in itself in a fast growing market.

Fossil Fuels correspondingly reduce from a 70% share in 2022 to 41% in 2030 and only 23% in 2035; so over 2/3 of the market to little over 1/5 in the space of 10 years.

The question directly arises which is considered in the next sub-section; is this really possible?

Renewables – Gap  to NZ Transition –

  • It is important to note that the IEA’s Net Zero 20250 Report is not, unlike its STEPS scenario counterpart, a prediction of outcomes in 2030 or 2050 but rather presents a feasible if very ambitious pathway to achieve a defined critical outcome; ie.  net zero emissions by 2050 (with remaining emissions balanced by CO2 removal). Following is a brief outline of some main challenges faced in achieving that target both in the intermediate time periods of 2030, 2035 and 2040 as well as in the final phase to 2050.
  • The answer to the question of whether the targets for renewables are achievable, according to IEA in its most recent World Energy Outlook 2024, based on current trends is that it is, or almost is!  In a key passage, quoted below it highlights the manufacturing capacity is present to meet these targets, the only question is whether there is the public and political willpower to actually make it happen:

‘Ample clean energy manufacturing capacity creates scope for faster transitions that move towards alignment with national and global net zero goals, but this means addressing imbalances in today’s investment flows and clean energy supply chains. Over the past five years, annual solar capacity additions quadrupled to 425 GW, but annual manufacturing capacity is set for a sixfold increase to more than 1 100 GW, a level that – if deployed in full – would be very close to the amounts needed in the NZE Scenario. There is a similar story of plentiful manufacturing capacity for lithium-ion batteries.’ (p17)

  • However in an era of rising interest rates making heavily frontloaded capital investment costs (which is the case for all Renewables)  more difficult, combined  with  the continued resistance from various sectors as noted in the IRENA global status report, the outcome is far from being a foregone conclusion.  This coupled with the active opposition of the new US President Trump to renewables, wind power in particular by removing deployment subsidies which have previously been critical for their success means that renewables must fight for every gain in market share achieved in the future. Whether the cost economics and the momentum built up in recent years is sufficient to carry the sector over will be determined over the next number of years. A widespread appreciation of the true rationale for renewables, not only their attractive economics but the climate imperative of ending fossil fuels will be key.

MCL – April 2025  (next update schedule:  Spring 2027;  more regular updates in the ‘Recent News Section ).

5. Recent Update Posts and News Links -renewables

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