Context – Countries – European Union (EU)

Contents –

  1.  GHG Emissions Profile
  2. Energy
  3. Energy, Environmental and Climate Policy in the  EU
  4. Climate Action Tracker Evaluation
  5. Recent Posts and News Links – EU

1. European Union – GHG Emissions Profile

  • The EU is ranked as the 4th most greenhouse gas (GHG)  emitting ‘country’ (counted as one federated region (‘country’)  constituting of 27 member states with the EU having jurisdictional competency in energy and climate change action, derived from the EU Treaty of Lisbon in 2007) in the world according to the EU Emissions Database, releasing 3.221 Gigatonnes of CO2eq for all greenhouse gases in 2023 (1 Gigatonnes = 1 billion tonnes =  ,  CO2eq/CO2e – where greenhouse gases are converted to CO2 equivalent heating potential) representing approximately 6.08 % of the global total emissions.
  •   The EU ranked behind China (15.94Gt CO2eq – 30.1% of global total), United States (5.96 CO2eq -11.25% ) and India (7.8Gt CO2eq- 7.8%) in absolute GHG emission terms.  However  on a per capita (per person) basis, the EU average contributes 7.26 tonnes of CO2e per person to the atmosphere per year– that compares favourably with the United States (17.61t CO2e per head) as well with China (11.11t CO2e) but less well with the UK  which emits 5.55t CO2e per head (mainly due to its switch from coal to gas in electricity generation) and with India with a similar population size to China though India per person only emits a fraction at 2.90t CO2e (which highlights the criticality of the development and emissions pathway of that country for future global emissions).
  • The graph above indicates the EU GHG emissions by sector.  It indicates relatively steady emission levels at 4.5 billion to 2007, with a notable dip during the 2008 recission (and again during covid period in 2020-2021) but with a steady continuous downwards trend in emissions from 2010 through to the present. In 1995 total emissions stood at 4.41GtCO2eq, in 2005 that stood broadly the same at 4.51 GtCO2eq; by 2015, emissions fell to 3.84GtCO2e and by 2021 total GHG emissions had fallen again to 3.5GtCO2eq.
  •  What may be reasonably noticeable from the graph above is that the reduction was led by the ‘Electricity and heat’ sectors which will be looked at further in the next section. However what is not so clear from the graph is the reductions in the next two biggest emitting sectors; ‘Transport’ which fell from 0.843GtCO2eq in 2005 to 0.785GtCO2eq in 2021, gradual reductions led primarily by emission standards regulations policy.
  • This rate of reduction would need to pick up significantly in the coming years to meet the EU emission reduction commitments and it remains to be seen if the headline transport can achieve those ambitions which will be looked at in section 3. 
  • In the third biggest sector, ‘Buildings’; emissions all fell gradually from 0.581Gt in 2005 to 0.449Gt CO2e in 2021 again led by building standards combining energy efficiency (insulation etc) standards and heating. Though again the policies to lead the switch to heat pumps heating (with advantages both in energy efficiency as well as electricity rather than direct fossil fuel powered) is being tested in several countries political systems with the growth of ‘populist’ politics backlash against heat pumps and source, particularly in Germany.

2. Energy

Electricity Generation –

  • Total electricity generation in the EU has remained fairly steady at 3,000 TWh over the past 20 years with some small reduction in recent years accountable by energy conservation measures reducing demand and electrification increasing energy efficiency.  Nuclear has noticeably fallen which is driven by the German decision to phase out nuclear power after the Fujishima catastrophic  nuclear accident.  Coal has also seen a slow gradual reduction in generating contribution falling steeply during the Covid 19 period with only a partial recovery post pandemic despite gas supply restrictions from the start of the Russian war with Ukraine, where it was renewables that ramped up generation to replace the shortfall in gas supplies, not coal. One of the major challenges will be the speed of further reduction and elimination of coal as the most carbon polluting energy source, with high usage in Poland and Germany particularly.

Renewable Energy Generation –

  • As in many other developed countries, the big story in electricity generation from the above graph has been the rise of renewables  in which the EU is a leading example of that advancement. From 418 TWh (terawatt hours) in 2000 this almost trebled to 1,211 TWh by 2022. This total for renewable power generation  represented a total of 38.85% of total (0.25%-other, 5.94% biofuels, 7.59%-solar, and 15.12% wind) in 2022, up from 22% in 2010.
  • Initially hydro was effectively the only power source which has held steady in over 50 years at around 300 TWh (varying mainly according to water availability conditions) The advancement in renewables was led in the early years by wind which has grown x10 from only 21 TWhs in 2000 to 480 TWhs by 2023.  Since only 2020, solar has taken a recent surge and in 2023 provided 247 TWhs of power.  Wind now provides approximately 40% of all renewable power, hydro 26% and solar 20%.  

3. Energy, Environmental and Climate Policy in the EU

  • The EU actually started life in 1951 as the European Coal and Steel Community with energyat its heart in a bid to foster cooperation and harmony in Europe after WW2. The impetus for energy and climate action derived from the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007 which granted the EU competency in these areas in a bid to ensure energy security and foster common environmental standards across Europe and create a level playing field across EU countries.  This led to the Energy Union strategy from 2015 which was described as the biggest The first renewable energy deployment pulse originated from the  2009 Renewable Energy Directive which pledged a target of 20% renewable energy by 2020, it actually achieved 22% by the date.
  • A key feature of the EU renewables drive is that it has always been part of a wider package along with energy efficiency/reduction goals to achieve significant GHG emission reductions at the same time as placing the EU in a global leadership role in the UNFCCC annual Conference of the Parties (COP) negotiations related to these commitments. Its initial climate goal was also to reach a 20% emissions reduction by 2020 compared to 1990 levels which it actually cut by 30% by the same date. In 2014 the EU agreed a new target of 40% reduction emissions reduction by 2030.
  • Under the EU Commissioner, Ursula Van der Leyen’s first five year term from 2019, the EU adopted the flagship European Green Deal. This increased the emission reduction target from 40% to 55% by 2030 and with the legal target of net-zero emissions by 2050 under the European climate law and an early adopter of this obligation written into law. The implementing package of measures, Fit for 55 package includes 54 different actions across the EU states including specific measures on climate change biodiversity loss  and the circular economy along with measures to support communities with heavier social and economic dependence on fossil fuels, particularly coal as well as increasing innovation and EU competitiveness.
  • For renewable energy and in the context of greater concerns over energy security resulting from the Ukranian war, the EU adopted the  REPowerEU in 2022 which reduced Russian fossil (natural) gas share by 30% in context of an overall reduction in fossil gas by 18%.  This law introduces a new renewables target of 42.5% plus 2.5% top up commitment by 2030 but which has been criticised as too lax, particularly in view of the fact that in 2024, the EU produced a record  47% of its electricity from renewable sources 6 years before the target date and far outstripping fossil fuel generation down to 26% with coal below 10%!
  • The Fit for 55 package also includes an expansion of the European ETS, (Emissions Trading Scheme) which caps the amount of emissions the industry sector is permitted to trade  bringing shipping and a new separate ETS scheme for transport and buildings and reduction of the overall available cap from -2.2% per year to -4.3% with a target to reduce emissions in the sector by 62% by 2030 compared to 2005. The package also includes the more controversial Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) which basically operates as a levy on imports from countries with less stringent carbon pricing rules for certain products to ensure that EU companies do not suffer a disadvantage because of these measures in its own territory.
  • The combination of these measures are having an immediate impact on emissions showing that sustained and determined action has significant results; where emmissions fell by 8.3% in 2023 alone , a record outside of Covid pandemic years. Nevertheless, the progress in agriculture, buildings and transport sectors is lagging behind. There has also been growing resistance to measures such as farmers protesting biodiversity targets affecting their businesses and populist parties gaining ground in the 2024 European Parliament elections. Countries such as Poland and Italy and Germany have also pushed back on the ever tightening climate measures in various ways. Nevertheless and despite these tensions, the newly re-elected EU Commissioner (2024-2029), Ursula Van der Leyen has committed to continue the Green Deal packages, even as attention turns to the EU position in a more competitive and confrontational world. It remains to be seen if the commitments will be delivered with priorities turning in new directions such as defence and AI investment.

4. Climate Action Tracker Evaluation

  • Each year the Climate Action Tracker evaluates the climate commitments of countries against a number of standards, the headlines one being the Countries alignment to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees and as close to  1.5 degrees as possible and the likelihood of the achievement of the particular commitments of the country to reducing emission (Nationally Determined Commitment – ‘NDCs’).
  • The Action Tracker picks up on the European Green Deal and notes that the new focus will be on implementing the existing commitments rather than making new ones. It also recognises the Commissions proposed reductions to 2040 of 90% to succeed the 2030 commitments though not yet adopted and finds these commitments at the lower range of what’s needed. The report notes that the EU has made significant progress over the past 4 years with the Green Deal on track to achieve 52% of the committed 55% by 2030.
  • However it notes the lack of a coal and fossil gas phase out in electricity generation, recommending 2030 and 2035 respectively. It indicates that the EU should stop any future investment in fossil fuels and focus all its efforts on renewables. It recommends that the longer term 2050 Net Zero strategy should be  revised particularly as the EU has assessed Member State efforts to be insufficient.  It also criticises the EU fair share contribution to climate change mitigation and recommends that the CABM revenue should be recycled back to developing countries to assist them in their transition efforts.

Other related EU targets are rated in the 2024 report as follows:

  • Net Zero Target – Acceptable – covers most elements moderately well but that a clear distinction between emission reductions and carbon removals is lacking
  • Policies and Actions – Insufficient – measures reported by individual member states are 10% short while Commission targets are 3% short (when land change is included) of the 55% reduction by 2030
  • NDC fair share – Insufficient – (taking account of its historic emissions contributions as well as its relative wealth). Needs substantial improvement  if all countries followed UK approach warming would reach up to 3 degrees warming.
  • Climate Finance –Insufficient – briefly indicates that its climate financing is not sufficient to meet the fare share target rating.

MC Leech – March 2025 (next update in Spring 2027, with more frequent updates to section 5 below.)

5. Recent Posts and News Links – EU

Climate Junction Posts

Updates – EU

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